Policy Paper “Russian Encroachment in Arab Countries since 2011: Brewing Problems for the EU in the Middle East and North Africa?”

Date of publication: November 24, 2020

Tomáš Kaválek of Prague Centre for Middle East Relations (PCMR) of CEVRO Institute with Filip Sommer of Association for International Affairs (AMO) published a policy paper for New Direction titled “Russian Encroachment in Arab Countries since 2011: Brewing Problems for the EU in the Middle East and North Africa?”

This study provides a brief overview of Russian and EU policies towards the MENA, followed by case studies of Russian engagement in three distinctive groups of countries in 2011-20: the Arabian Peninsula, Levant and Iraq, and North Africa. Examining them in a comparative perspective, we attempt to solve the following puzzle: What is the nature of Russian foreign policy towards Arab countries? What are its main drivers? Is it a systematic and multi-sectored concerted effort across security, economic, political sector, or somewhat ad hoc, narrow-focused engagement? The principal added value of the study lies primarily in looking into what implications do Russian policies in Arab countries have for the EU; making it a distinctive contribution given most publications on the matter are US policy-focused.

While Russia remains relatively weak in the Arab MENA region, it proved that with little resources, it is able to secure influence in countries and over conflicts, primarily in Libya where it effectively retreated from long ago, or Syria. The EU in turn, was not able to react cohesively to Russian return to the MENA, and that includes North Africa, a region of utmost strategic importance for Europe. As long as the US remains intensely engaged in the region, it effectively prevents further Russian encroachment, primarily in the security sector. Should the US divert its attention elsewhere, the EU must even more acutely assume a more decisive role in countering Russian influence, in particular in North Africa, Lebanon, and Syria.