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Commentary on Events in Syria One Year After the Fall of the Assad Regime

Date of publication: December 10, 2025

On December 8, 2025, Filip Sommer, director of the Centre for Middle Eastern Relations (PCMR) at CEVRO University, commented on the situation in Syria one year after the overthrow of Bashar al-Assad’s regime for CNN Prima News. The full link to the interview is here (starting at 31:42). Here is also a brief transcript of what did not make it into the full interview. Syria One Year After the Coup (questions from CNN Prima News)

  • Is Syria more free after a year of Ahmad Shara’s rule?

FS: Syria is currently still in a phase of political, economic, and, to some extent, social transition. However, I would be cautious about describing the current situation as “more free.” For example, the situation is much more complicated for religious minorities such as the Druze (who predominantly inhabit parts of the southern province of Suwayda), the Alawites (who live mainly on the Syrian coast), and the Kurds, who dominate the northeast of the country. In general, we can also speak of restrictions on women’s rights in all aspects of life. Based on my own observations while traveling through Syria, there is a palpable sense of mild fear about what lies ahead. As a result, women cover themselves even in larger cities like Damascus. At the same time, we ourselves witnessed the recent parliamentary elections, which were more of a process for selecting political supporters of President Shara and the current interim government. 

  • Has Sharaa managed to distance himself from his terrorist past and make an effective impact on foreign policy?

FS: I myself witnessed a recent live interview with President Ahmed al-Sharaa at the Doha Forum 2025. I think he’s trying to come across as very diplomatic and pragmatic, which is evident, after all, in his current relations with the U.S., for example. He had already proven himself a pragmatist back when he governed Idlib. So, to a certain extent, he is succeeding in building an image of a new Syria. However, it is very difficult to shake off the label of “terrorist,” and this label will continue to follow him (especially among those who are skeptical of his style of governing the country).

  • Have Syrians living abroad started returning to Syria over the past year?

FS: I would break down this answer geographically. While we are seeing Syrians returning from neighboring countries, particularly Turkey, there is no significant emigration back to Syria in the European context. Syrians in Germany, for example, are monitoring the situation, but in my opinion, they do not see any social, economic, or security benefits they would gain by returning to Syria. Another factor that “makes returning difficult” is their integration into European society. I do not think that, given the current situation, they would consider returning to Syria to be beneficial in any way. The issue of their integration is, for example, very sensitive in Germany, and there is currently a discussion about a possible change in the approach to asylum seekers or the issue of emigration in general.

  • Where is Sharaa looking for allies abroad?

FS: I think the Syrian president is currently seeking allies almost everywhere. This involves a diplomatic balancing act between the West—particularly the U.S., European countries, and regional Arab states (Turkey, the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, Qatar)—and countries such as Russia. At the same time, I do not believe we have reached a point where the current government must decide to align itself with one side or the other. The current government benefits from alliances with the U.S. and regional players such as Turkey, the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, and Qatar, while also maintaining diplomatic relations with Russia on a limited basis. Here, too, we see considerable pragmatism on the part of Moscow, which—in order to preserve its strategic position in Syria (particularly the port of Tartus and the Khmeimin airbase)—has made a 180-degree shift in its alliance (from Bashar al-Assad to Ahmed al-Sharaa).

  • How do you expect relations between Syria and Israel to develop?

FS: Currently, the main focus is on the possible conclusion of a security agreement. On the one hand, it should ensure the withdrawal of the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) from southern Syria and Israel’s recognition of the new Syrian government. On the other hand, Damascus would have to ensure that no attacks are launched against Israel from Syrian territory, whether by extremist elements within the government or by foreign fighters, Hamas fighters, Palestinian Islamic Jihad fighters, or Houthis (Ansar Allah). In this regard, the issue of the Golan Heights is also interesting. Sharaa himself hails from this region (hence his nom de guerre, Mohammad al-Jolani). However, I do not believe that Israel would relinquish the Golan Heights as part of signing the Abraham Accords with Israel. Israel might withdraw from other Syrian territories, but the process of normalization between the two states is a long-term endeavor. At the same time, this will depend on the approach and pressure exerted by the U.S., as the Donald Trump administration aims to expand the Abraham Accords to include Syria, for example.