Comments on the current war in Iran

Date of publication: March 5, 2026

Date of publication: March 5, 2026

At the end of February and beginning of March 2026, Filip Sommer, Director of the Prague Center for Middle East Relations (PCMR) at CEVRO University, commented on the current war in Iran.

The outputs can be found, for example, on the websites: České Noviny,  Novinky, HROT24, Forbes, ČT24 nebo iRozhlas.

Selected quotes

“A complete long-term closure of the Strait of Hormuz would be a major shock to global markets,” said Filip Sommer, director of the Prague Center for Middle East Relations at CEVRO University in Prague, over the weekend. “Riyadh does have an alternative in the form of the East-West oil pipeline leading to the Red Sea, and Abu Dhabi can use the pipeline to the port of Fujairah outside the Strait of Hormuz, but these capacities are not a full replacement for long-term restrictions on maritime transport,” he added.

“According to Sommer, historical experience shows that external military pressure can weaken power structures, but without an internal collapse of legitimacy and without the active role of domestic society, it does not usually lead to a sustainable political transition. Therefore, he believes that the attitude of the Iranian population remains a key variable. He expects the current war to continue to escalate in the coming weeks.”