Study “The impact of the fall of the Assad regime on Syria and the wider region”
Date of publication: October 15, 2026
Jan Daniel, Senior Researcher at the Institute of International Relations Prague, Anna Filipi, PhD student at the Department of the Middle East, Faculty of Arts, Charles University, Clément Steuer, Associate Researcher at the Institute of International Relations Prague and Filip Sommer, Director of the Prague Centre for Middle East Relations (PCMR) at CEVRO University have published a study for the European Parliament titled “The impact of the fall of the Assad regime on Syria and the wider region”
The fall of the regime of Bashar al-Assad in December 2024 marked a breakthrough in the modern history of Syria. It created an opportunity for the country’s political transformation and, at the same time, raised important questions about its future stability, security situation, and the role of regional and international actors. A new study commissioned by the European Parliament within a project coordinated by the Trans European Policy Studies Association (TEPSA) is focused on the formation of a new political order in Syria, possible scenarios for its future development, and the options available to the European Union (EU).
The study draws on interviews, field research, and policy analysis to examine the political, economic, and security factors shaping Syria’s situation after the fall of Assad. It pays special attention to questions about governing the country, economic recovery, protecting minorities, social cohesion, and relations between communities. These factors can fundamentally influence the country’s long-term stability and the success of its political transformation.
The study’s findings were presented to the European Parliament’s Committee on Foreign Affairs, where they also discussed the challenges faced by the Syrian Transitional Government and the role of external actors in stabilizing the country.
Instead of focusing on one prediction for the country’s future, the authors put together three possible scenarios for the next 12 to 24 months:
- state consolidation,
- authoritarian stabilisation,
- renewed territorial fragmentation.
The authors analyze factors that can steer Syria in one of those scenarios and their implications for European policy.
The study also presents concrete recommendations for the EU on how to approach cooperation with Syria during a period of uncertain political transition and how to contribute to its long-term stabilization.
You can read the full study on our website or on the European Parliament website here.